Prepper Précis

Security intelligence for leaders and prepared citizens

Daily Prepper's Précis - 2025-12-21

OSINT DAILY THREAT PRÉCIS

Date: 2025-12-21
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Prepared by: SuperGrok for PrepperPrecis.com
Distribution: Security Professionals and Informed Citizens

Timestamp: 2025-12-21T13:45:03 UTC (08:45:03 EST)

Disclaimer: This précis is based solely on open source intelligence (OSINT) and may contain limitations such as incomplete data, potential biases in reporting, or unverified claims. Users should cross-reference with official sources and exercise caution in decision-making.

Executive Summary

Physical Security

  • Terrorism/Extremism: Recent FBI actions foiled a potential New Year’s Eve attack in Los Angeles, involving a suspect with a “mishmash” of ideological beliefs, highlighting the risk of hybrid motivations fueling violence. DHS’s National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) bulletin notes an elevated threat from Iran-affiliated actors, including potential targeting of U.S. officials linked to past incidents. Domestic extremism investigations have expanded, with FBI cases opened in 23 regions related to anti-ICE activities, some tied to executive memos on thwarting “terroristic activities.” Transnational terrorism appears de-emphasized in the 2025 National Security Strategy, but warnings persist for low-level threats from groups like ISIS-K, including calls for holiday attacks.
  • Civil Unrest: Social tensions remain moderate, with no major protests reported in the past 24 hours, but X posts indicate speculation around economic crashes and wildfires potentially exacerbating unrest in California. Anti-ICE activities could lead to localized demonstrations, particularly in border states.
  • Criminal Activity: Organized violence, including cartel-related border incidents and cybercrime-linked kinetic strikes, is noted in recent intelligence briefs. Human trafficking indicators are stable but tied to broader immigration enforcement scrutiny.
  • Infrastructure Threats: Warnings of sabotage to critical infrastructure, such as power grids and transportation, align with broader threat matrices including AI-enabled attacks and drone/IED usage by extremists.
  • Analyst’s Comments: The physical security landscape today shows a pivot from traditional transnational terrorism toward more diffuse, ideologically blended threats, as seen in the LA plot—it’s like extremism’s version of a potluck dinner, where everyone brings a different grievance. Trends suggest lone actors pose the highest immediate risk, especially in urban centers; citizens should report suspicious activities to local authorities to help preempt these hybrid dangers without overreacting to every shadow.
  • Source URLs: https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2025/1219/la-terror-plot-fbi https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/19/fbi-terrorism-investigations-anti-ice-activity https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-june-22-2025 https://mwi.westpoint.edu/what-happened-to-transnational-terrorism/

Cyber Threats

  • Nation-State Activities: DHS officials warn of Chinese state-linked actors embedding in U.S. energy infrastructure, including electrical grids and oil/gas systems, with over 200 potential intrusions identified. Pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely conducting low-level attacks on U.S. networks amid ongoing conflicts, as per the NTAS bulletin. The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment highlights growing cooperation among adversaries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea in cyber domains to challenge U.S. dominance.
  • Cybercriminal Operations: Ransomware and DDoS attacks remain prevalent, with recent outages exposing single-point failures in major internet platforms. Cybercrime is converging with kinetic threats, such as cartel violence and information warfare.
  • Critical Infrastructure Cyber: Vulnerabilities in healthcare, transportation, and power grids are emphasized, with intelligence chiefs warning of permanent conditions involving sabotage and cyber-attacks. AI-enabled cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure are assessed as a moderate-likelihood, high-impact threat.
  • Personal Cybersecurity: Phishing and malware trends continue, with consumer risks heightened by disinformation campaigns manipulating social media.
  • Analyst’s Comments: Cyber threats are evolving into a persistent shadow war, where nation-states like China are playing the long game by burrowing into our grids—think of it as digital termites in the nation’s foundation. The trend toward hybrid cyber-physical attacks means individuals should prioritize basic hygiene like multi-factor authentication; amusingly, if only updating passwords was as easy as ignoring spam calls, we’d all be safer.
  • Source URLs: https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-june-22-2025 https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf https://x.com/preparedbrief/status/2000969876672852032 https://x.com/NATSEC09/status/2000577609004933542

Public Health

  • Severe Weather: No immediate extreme weather events reported today, but ongoing recovery from recent California wildfires and catastrophes could impact air quality in the West. Forecasts indicate stable conditions through 2025-12-23, with potential for unseasonable storms in the Midwest.
  • Geological Events: Low risk of earthquakes or volcanic activity; monitoring continues for Pacific Northwest volcanic risks, but no elevated indicators today.
  • Public Health: No major disease outbreaks noted, but air quality issues from lingering wildfire smoke in California pose respiratory risks. Contamination events are minimal, though supply chain disruptions could indirectly affect pharmaceutical availability.
  • Climate-Related: Wildfire risks persist in California amid speculation of economic impacts; drought and flooding are not immediate threats but contribute to longer-term vulnerabilities.
  • Travel-related: Major highways in California may face closures due to wildfire damage; airports are operational, but travelers should check for delays related to infrastructure recovery.
  • Analyst’s Comments: Public health threats today are subdued but tied to environmental fallout, like California’s wildfires that have some speculating about deliberate causes—almost like nature’s own conspiracy theory. Trends show climate events amplifying health risks; affected residents should monitor air quality apps and stock basic medical supplies to avoid unnecessary exposure, keeping things practical without turning into doomsday preppers.
  • Source URLs: https://x.com/TiffMoodNukes/status/1878186023802298727 https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/24_0930_ia_24-320-ia-publication-2025-hta-final-30sep24-508.pdf https://x.com/preparedbrief/status/2002050903072002389

Key Indicators

This section incorporates near-term threat expansions (24-72 hours), including economic/supply chain and information/psychological operations threats, based on current OSINT.

Near-Term Threat Expansion 1: Iran-Affiliated Cyber and Physical Targeting

  • Threat Description: Potential low-level cyber attacks and physical threats from pro-Iranian actors, including hacktivists and extremists targeting U.S. officials or infrastructure, stemming from ongoing conflicts.
  • Geographic Impact: Nationwide, with focus on major cities like Washington D.C., New York, and Los Angeles.
  • Population at Risk: Government officials, military personnel, and critical infrastructure workers.
  • Likelihood Assessment: Medium - Based on NTAS bulletin and recent intelligence assessments.
  • Potential Impact: Disruptions to networks, potential violence against individuals, and economic ripple effects from infrastructure hits.
  • Recommended Actions: Enhance personal cybersecurity (e.g., VPN usage); report suspicious activities to FBI tip lines; officials should vary routines.
  • Monitoring Indicators: Increased social media chatter from Iranian proxies; spikes in network intrusion attempts; public statements from Iranian officials.
  • Analyst’s Comments: This threat underscores the blending of digital and physical realms, putting key personnel at risk without a full-scale war—it’s like a chess game where pawns are real people. Residents in affected areas should stay informed via official alerts and avoid sharing sensitive info online to mitigate personal exposure.

Near-Term Threat Expansion 2: Domestic Extremism and Civil Unrest

  • Threat Description: Elevated risk of lone-actor violence or small-scale unrest tied to anti-ICE investigations and ideological mixes, potentially escalating around holidays.
  • Geographic Impact: Urban areas in 23 FBI regions, particularly border states (Texas, Arizona) and California.
  • Population at Risk: Law enforcement, immigrants, and public event attendees.
  • Likelihood Assessment: High - Recent foiled plots and FBI expansions indicate active plotting.
  • Potential Impact: Localized violence, disruptions to public gatherings, and heightened community tensions.
  • Recommended Actions: Avoid large crowds if unrest is reported; use community alert systems; support de-escalation through local dialogues.
  • Monitoring Indicators: Surge in extremist online rhetoric; protest announcements on social media; law enforcement advisories.
  • Analyst’s Comments: With ideologies mixing like a bad cocktail, this threat could fizz over into real-world issues; trends show social media amplifying risks. People in hot spots should prioritize situational awareness—perhaps treat it like checking the weather before a picnic—to safely navigate potential flare-ups.

Near-Term Threat Expansion 3: Supply Chain and Energy Disruptions

  • Threat Description: Embedded Chinese actors in energy infrastructure could lead to disruptions, compounded by global economic pressures and wildfire-related issues in California.
  • Geographic Impact: Nationwide energy grid, with acute risks in Western states (California, Texas).
  • Population at Risk: General public reliant on electricity, fuel, and supply chains; vulnerable groups like the elderly during outages.
  • Likelihood Assessment: Medium - Intelligence reveals over 200 embeddings, with recent warnings.
  • Potential Impact: Power outages, fuel shortages, and economic strain from halted services.
  • Recommended Actions: Stock emergency supplies (batteries, non-perishables); monitor energy provider alerts; diversify supply sources.
  • Monitoring Indicators: Reports of grid anomalies; price volatility in energy markets; government advisories on shortages.
  • Analyst’s Comments: This feels like a slow-burn thriller where the villain is already inside the house—trends point to increasing foreign influence in essentials. Affected folks can mitigate by building small reserves, turning potential crises into mere inconveniences without hoarding like it’s the apocalypse.

Near-Term Threat Expansion 4: Disinformation and Psychological Operations

  • Threat Description: Foreign influence campaigns, including state-sponsored propaganda and social media manipulation, aiming to sow discord amid security shifts.
  • Geographic Impact: Nationwide, amplified in online spaces affecting all states.
  • Population at Risk: General public, particularly those engaged in social media and political discourse.
  • Likelihood Assessment: High - Ongoing campaigns noted in threat assessments.
  • Potential Impact: Eroded trust in institutions, amplified unrest, and misguided public actions.
  • Recommended Actions: Verify information from multiple sources; limit sharing unconfirmed posts; use fact-checking tools.
  • Monitoring Indicators: Coordinated hashtag trends; spikes in bot activity; official debunkings.
  • Analyst’s Comments: Disinformation is the modern smoke and mirrors, making real threats harder to spot—trends show it’s as pervasive as bad Wi-Fi. Users can counter by treating online claims like suspicious emails: delete or verify, keeping their mental space clutter-free.

Source Assessment

AIs can make mistakes. Check important info.