Daily Prepper's Précis - 2025-11-20
OSINT DAILY THREAT PRÉCIS
Date: 2025-11-20
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Prepared by: SuperGrok for PrepperPrecis.com
Distribution: Security Professionals and Informed Citizens
Executive Summary
- Threat Level Assessment: Elevated - Based on recent DHS advisories and intelligence assessments indicating heightened risks from terrorism, cyber incidents, and potential civil unrest, with a focus on multi-vector threats including aviation plots and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities.
- Key Developments: In the past 24 hours, reports from CSIS highlight new significant cyber incidents added to their timeline, including state-sponsored espionage; DHS news updates note ongoing concerns from the June 2025 National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin; and social media analysis reveals public sentiment around potential power grid disruptions and terror threats.
- Priority Alerts: Monitor for potential aviation-related terrorist activities linked to al-Qaeda, as per recent OSINT; prepare for cyber disruptions in critical sectors amid a 47% increase in attacks noted in 2025 cybersecurity briefings; watch for civil unrest tied to political fragmentation.
- Source URLs: https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-june-22-2025 https://www.csis.org/analysis/global-terrorism-threat-assessment-2025 https://www.csis.org/programs/strategic-technologies-program/significant-cyber-incidents https://breached.company/briefing-on-the-2025-cybersecurity-landscape-key-threats-trends-and-incidents/
Physical Security
- Terrorism/Extremism: Recent OSINT from the Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2025 by CSIS indicates persistent threats from groups like al-Qaeda, including potential aviation plots reminiscent of historical failed operations. DHS’s June 2025 bulletin warns of elevated risks from domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and international actors exploiting U.S. borders for multi-city operations. Social media posts analyzed today reference a “multiple threat matrix” involving al-Qaeda and threats to veterans and Tier 2 cities, though these remain unverified. The DNI’s March 2025 Annual Threat Assessment highlights growing cooperation among adversaries, increasing the risk of coordinated attacks.
- Civil Unrest: Indicators of social tension persist, with X posts discussing political fragmentation, potential masked militias, and unrest tied to economic pressures. No major protests reported in the last 24 hours, but the DHS Homeland Threat Assessment anticipates domestic strife linked to ongoing global conflicts and internal divisions. Watch for escalation in urban areas amid speculation of economic crashes or wildfires in California.
- Criminal Activity: Trends show spikes in organized crime, including human trafficking indicators near borders. X posts mention concerns over trans-related violence and assassinations, but these are speculative. No confirmed spikes in violent crime today, though general alerts for veteran communities suggest targeted risks.
- Infrastructure Threats: Potential threats to physical infrastructure include power grid vulnerabilities, with X posts warning of grid shutdowns due to weak cybersecurity. The DNI assessment notes risks to critical sectors like transportation and power grids from adversarial campaigns.
- Source URLs: https://www.csis.org/analysis/global-terrorism-threat-assessment-2025 https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-june-22-2025 https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf https://www.afcea.org/signal-media/intelligence/annual-assessment-lists-primary-threats-us-national-security
Analyst’s Comments
Today’s physical security landscape reflects a convergence of domestic and international threats, with terrorism indicators pointing to a resurgence of al-Qaeda-style plots amid border vulnerabilities—a trend that’s been building since early 2025. Civil unrest remains a wildcard, fueled by online narratives of impending chaos, which could amplify real-world tensions; it’s almost comical how every year we brace for “the big one,” yet preparation gaps persist. For those in affected areas like Tier 2 cities or near aviation hubs, staying informed via official alerts and avoiding high-risk gatherings could mitigate personal exposure, though broader trends suggest a need for community resilience planning.
Cyber Threats
- Nation-State Activities: The CSIS Significant Cyber Incidents timeline, updated as of November 19, 2025, reports ongoing state-sponsored operations, including espionage by actors like China, Russia, and Iran targeting U.S. entities. The DIA 2025 Threat Assessment warns of growing complexity in global cyber threats, with midyear roundups highlighting attacks from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. DHS assessments note these nations posing significant risks amid election-related tensions.
- Cybercriminal Operations: A 47% year-over-year increase in weekly cyber attacks is reported in the 2025 Cybersecurity Landscape briefing, including ransomware and data breaches. The NCSC 2025 Annual Review indicates a 50% rise in highly significant incidents, urging organizations to prepare.
- Critical Infrastructure Cyber: Vulnerabilities in sectors like healthcare, transportation, and power grids are emphasized, with X posts speculating on massive cyber attacks leading to outages. Confirmed malware infiltrations in U.S. utility grids heighten risks of disruptions.
- Personal Cybersecurity: Consumer threats include phishing and identity theft, with trends showing increased sophistication. WatchGuard Fireware OS vulnerabilities (CVE-2025-9242) were added to CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog on November 12, 2025, affecting network security.
- Source URLs: https://www.csis.org/programs/strategic-technologies-program/significant-cyber-incidents https://breached.company/briefing-on-the-2025-cybersecurity-landscape-key-threats-trends-and-incidents/ https://digitalassetredemption.com/blog/ncsc-2025-annual-review-new-cyber-threats-and-tools https://industrialcyber.co/reports/us-dia-2025-threat-assessment-warns-of-growing-complexity-in-global-threats-national-security/ https://govtech.com/blogs/lohrmann-on-cybersecurity/midyear-roundup-nation-state-cyber-threats-in-2025
Analyst’s Comments
Cyber threats in 2025 continue to escalate at an alarming pace, with nation-state actors treating U.S. infrastructure like a digital playground—ironic, given how outdated some grid defenses are, almost begging for exploitation. The surge in attacks underscores a trend toward convergence with physical threats, like potential grid shutdowns. Individuals can bolster defenses by updating software, enabling multi-factor authentication, and monitoring for phishing, potentially averting personal data disasters amid this “cyber wild west.”
Public Health
- Severe Weather: No immediate extreme events reported today, but ongoing climate impacts include record-breaking catastrophes in California, with X posts noting wildfires and floods potentially linked to economic disruptions. Forecasted unseasonable weather could affect western states.
- Geological Events: Low activity, though X posts mention earthquake risks in broader doomsday scenarios, unverified. No current alerts from USGS.
- Public Health: DHS and DNI assessments highlight indirect health risks from threats like infrastructure disruptions, which could impact water systems and healthcare. Air quality issues persist in wildfire-prone areas like California. No major disease outbreaks reported, but contamination events tied to supply disruptions are possible.
- Climate-Related: Drought and flooding risks continue in populated areas, with California facing collapse scenarios from natural disasters as per social media sentiment. Wildfire threats remain elevated in the West.
- Travel-related: Potential closures of major highways in California due to wildfires or floods; airport operations could be affected by aviation threats or weather.
- Source URLs: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4386053-five-major-threats-to-us-national-security-in-2024/ https://www.dhs.gov/group/all/newsroom https://justsecurity.org/125179/early-edition-november-20-2025
Analyst’s Comments
Public health threats today are intertwined with environmental hazards, particularly in California where wildfires and floods create a perfect storm—pun intended—for health crises like poor air quality or water contamination. Trends show increasing frequency of these events, making it feel like Mother Nature is playing catch-up with 2025’s chaos. Residents in at-risk areas should stock emergency kits, monitor air quality apps, and have evacuation plans ready to sidestep avoidable health impacts.
Key Indicators
For each identified near-term threat, provide:
Threat Description: Potential al-Qaeda aviation plot, echoing historical attempts like the Bojinka plot, with correlated threats to special operations and veteran communities.
Geographic Impact: Nationwide, with focus on major airports and Tier 2 cities; potential international links affecting U.S. territories.
Population at Risk: Aviation travelers, veterans, and urban residents in mid-sized cities.
Likelihood Assessment: Medium - Based on OSINT from X posts and CSIS assessments, though unverified.
Potential Impact: Disruptions to air travel, possible casualties, and heightened security measures.
Recommended Actions: Avoid non-essential travel, report suspicious activities to authorities, and stay updated via DHS alerts.
Monitoring Indicators: Increased social media chatter on threats, official advisories, or unusual airport security changes.
Analyst’s Comments: This aviation threat looms as a classic resurgence risk, potentially disrupting daily life for travelers and veterans; while likelihood is medium, the impact could be severe, so proactive vigilance like signing up for travel alerts can help individuals stay ahead without paranoia.
Threat Description: Cyber attacks leading to grid shutdowns, with infiltrated malware in utility systems.
Geographic Impact: Nationwide, particularly affecting urban areas reliant on power grids.
Population at Risk: General population, especially those dependent on electricity for medical devices or water supply.
Likelihood Assessment: High - Confirmed by CSIS and X sentiment on weak cybersecurity.
Potential Impact: Power outages, loss of water, ATM failures, and chaos in daily operations.
Recommended Actions: Prepare emergency kits with water, non-perishable food, and backup power sources; limit reliance on digital payments.
Monitoring Indicators: Reports of cyber incidents, unusual power fluctuations, or CISA alerts.
Analyst’s Comments: Grid shutdowns represent a realistic “lights out” scenario in 2025’s cyber landscape, risking everything from spoiled food to medical emergencies; stocking basics like batteries and cash can turn potential disaster into a mere inconvenience for prepared households.
Threat Description: Civil unrest tied to political and economic pressures, including disinformation-fueled division.
Geographic Impact: Urban centers and states with high political fragmentation, such as California amid disaster recovery.
Population at Risk: Diverse communities, including minorities and those in protest-prone areas.
Likelihood Assessment: Medium - Driven by X posts and DHS warnings of domestic strife.
Potential Impact: Violence, property damage, and disruptions to services.
Recommended Actions: Avoid protest areas, secure homes, and verify information from credible sources.
Monitoring Indicators: Spikes in social media calls for action, police alerts, or event announcements.
Analyst’s Comments: With 2025’s undercurrents of division, unrest could bubble up quickly; it’s a reminder that social media often amplifies noise over facts—sticking to verified news and community networks can keep individuals safe without isolating from society.
Source Assessment
- Source Reliability: A (Government sites like DHS and DNI); B (Think tanks like CSIS); C (News outlets like The Hill); D (Blogs and X posts for sentiment, treated as inconclusive).
- Information Confidence: Medium - High for official assessments, lower for social media-derived indicators due to potential misinformation.
- Collection Gaps: Limited real-time data on unverified X claims; need more granular updates on cyber exploits and regional unrest.
- Source URLs: https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-june-22-2025 (A) https://www.csis.org/analysis/global-terrorism-threat-assessment-2025 (B) https://www.csis.org/programs/strategic-technologies-program/significant-cyber-incidents (B) https://breached.company/briefing-on-the-2025-cybersecurity-landscape-key-threats-trends-and-incidents/ (C) https://digitalassetredemption.com/blog/ncsc-2025-annual-review-new-cyber-threats-and-tools (C) https://industrialcyber.co/reports/us-dia-2025-threat-assessment-warns-of-growing-complexity-in-global-threats-national-security/ (B) https://govtech.com/blogs/lohrmann-on-cybersecurity/midyear-roundup-nation-state-cyber-threats-in-2025 (C) https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf (A) https://www.afcea.org/signal-media/intelligence/annual-assessment-lists-primary-threats-us-national-security (B) https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4386053-five-major-threats-to-us-national-security-in-2024/ (C) https://www.dhs.gov/group/all/newsroom (A) https://justsecurity.org/125179/early-edition-november-20-2025 (C)
Disclaimer: This précis is based solely on open source information and may contain limitations in accuracy or completeness. Users should cross-verify with official sources and consult professionals for personalized advice. Timestamp: 2025-11-20T13:45:11 UTC (08:45:11 EST).